![]() But why does this happen when we still have memories of our thoughts and feelings before an event? Hindsight bias can play serious tricks on our minds, and even causes people to rewrite history. If you lose, you’re more likely to be honest with your predictions. ![]() Turns out, you win! You’re more likely you believe that you knew you’d win all along. Let’s say you were entering a contest, but you knew you’d be a long-shot. ![]() If the surprise event was a failure, people are more likely to keep their memories intact. If the surprise event was a success, it’s more likely to be vulnerable to hindsight bias. (An example of this is the Clarence Thomas confirmation.) When it comes to smaller, more personal events, things may vary. Events like “seeing the future” and knowing about a surprise result are likely to result in hindsight bias. Studies show that there are patterns in where hindsight bias appears. There was a significant amount of memory distortion among the students. A month after the confirmation, the students were asked again what they had predicted. Students were asked to predict whether Clarence Thomas was going to be confirmed to the Supreme Court. In a strange twist of events, participants were more likely to have predicted the event after it happened – or at least, that’s what they told the researchers.Ī similar study was conducted in 1993. Then, they went back to the participants after the events had already happened and asked them to recall what they predicted. Researchers asked participants to predict a series of weather or political events. As I mentioned earlier in the video, studies on the hindsight bias began in the 1970s. Hindsight bias is a favorite study subject among psychologists. Once your friend reaches this point, they have been swept up and fully carried away by hindsight bias. Your friend tells you that they knew that this is how the relationship would end all along. The third level of hindsight bias is foreseeability. It was going to happen whether they made the effort to change it or not. Your friend tells you their partner was going to cheat on them anyway. The second level of hindsight bias is inevitability. But due to their hindsight bias, they believe it was something they predicted. You might have never heard your friend say that they were worried about their partner cheating on them. It involves the distortion of our memory. This is the first level of hindsight bias. As they start to grieve their relationship, they tell you “I said that this would happen!” Your friend discovers that their partner has cheated on them, even though they were in a perfectly happy relationship. Even if the person could have had no way of knowing the event, the hindsight bias tells them they “knew it all along.” It’s the phenomenon that events feel more predictable after they already happened. The hindsight bias is a coin termed in the 1970s. Psychologists do believe there is a hindsight bias that leads us to think that we can see things more clearly from the rearview mirror. In this video, I’m going to break down this phrase. When they say, “hindsight is 20/20,” they mean that it’s easier to see what could have happened after it’s already happened. Have you ever heard someone say, “Hindsight is 20/20?” It’s a common phrase used by people who might have just gone through a breakup, made a decision that fell through, or are looking back on their careers.
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